Juan Pablo Varillas vs Gonzalo Bueno | Montevideo Round of 32

UMPIRY

MontevideoR32ClayMon 16 Nov · 10:00

Juan Pablo VarillasATP #200 · PER45%

VSToss-up

Gonzalo BuenoATP #184 · PER55%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

45%55%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Varillas J.5.5/10

Slight disadvantage

Bueno G.6.3/10

Marginal edge

Why

Surface+38 Clay Elo edgeSupports Bueno G.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1491Supports Bueno G.

Head-to-headLeads 3–2 on clayInformative

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Bueno G.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 726

Clay ELO1 709

Last 104–6

Age31

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.9M2026 $48K

ELO1 731

Clay ELO1 702

Last 106–4

Age22

Height173 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $408K2026 $192K

Juan Pablo Varillas faces Gonzalo Bueno in the Montevideo round of 32 on clay. Gonzalo Bueno is the paper favourite — ranked #184, a roughly 40-point clay Elo advantage — but Juan Pablo Varillas has won 3 of their 5 previous meetings.

Key context

Freshness: Juan Pablo Varillas comes in with 2 days of rest and 87 games in 14d, vs Gonzalo Bueno's 3 and 126.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Gonzalo Bueno has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 45 vs 19).
Head-to-head: Juan Pablo Varillas leads the head-to-head 3–2. Last met at Santiago CH 2026.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

5 meetings · Varillas J. leads 3–2

Bueno G.March 2026Santiago CHClay6-0 7-5
Bueno G.October 2025Cali CHClay6-4 4-6 6-2
Varillas J.March 2025Campinas CHClay6-3 6-1
Varillas J.January 2025Buenos Aires Tigre CHClay7-6 6-4
Varillas J.October 2024Campinas CHClay4-6 6-4 6-3

Evidence

Varillas J.Bueno G.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–66–4

Season win rate54% (34–29)54% (38–32)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17261731

Clay-court ELO17091702

Serve vs returnLast 59 vs 67 matches

1st-serve points won69%63%

Return points won40%42%

Aces / match3.71.2

ClutchLast 59 vs 67 matches

Break points saved62%58%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceClay

Forecast22°C · Overcast

Wind11 km/h

Humidity77%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Varillas J.Bueno G.

2Days since last match3

2Matches · 7 days2

57Games · 7 days49

3Matches · 14 days6

87Games · 14 days126

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Juan Pablo Varillas vs Gonzalo Bueno — Montevideo Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-16/bueno-vs-varillas-montevideo-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 16 November 2026).