UMPIRY
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Luka Mikrut vs Iiro Vasa — Helsinki Qualifying Round of 32

HelsinkiQ32QualifyingHardSun 15 Nov · ~14:00CENTER COURT · After 2 matches
Luka MikrutATP #255 · CRO80%
VSStrong favourite · Mikrut L.
Iiro VasaFIN20%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Mikrut L.
80%20%

Clear edge for Mikrut L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Mikrut L.6.3/10
Marginal edgeBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Vasa I.5.4/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on hardInformative
Recent runLost last 3Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 769
Hard ELO1 536
Last 107–3
Age22
Height188 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $279K2026 $106K
ELO1 538
Hard ELO1 519
Last 103–7
Age24
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $29K2026 $14K

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Mikrut L.Vasa I.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)3–7
Season win rate66% (25–13) (ahead)43% (9–12)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1769 (ahead)1538
Hard-court ELO1536 (ahead)1519
Serve vs returnLast 37 vs 16 matches
1st-serve points won73% (ahead)72%
Return points won38% (ahead)37%
Aces / match5.26.2 (ahead)
ClutchLast 37 vs 16 matches
Break points saved65% (ahead)61%

When it starts

CENTER COURT · After 2 matches · Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · ~14:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast8°C · Drizzle
Wind40 km/h
Humidity84%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Luka Mikrut vs Iiro Vasa — Helsinki Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-15/mikrut-vs-vasa-helsinki-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 15 November 2026).