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Cezar Cretu vs Felix Alopaeus — Helsinki Qualifying Round of 32

HelsinkiQ32QualifyingHardSun 15 Nov · ~12:30CENTER COURT · After 1 match
Cezar CretuATP #273 · ROU76%
VSClear favourite · Cretu C.
Felix AlopaeusFIN24%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Cretu C.
76%24%

Clear edge for Cretu C. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Cretu C.5.9/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Alopaeus F.5.6/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form4 of last 10 on hardInformative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 746
Hard ELO1 580
Last 107–3
Age25
ELO1 496
Hard ELO1 497
Last 103–5
Age19

Cezar Cretu faces Felix Alopaeus in the Helsinki qualifying round of 32 on hard. Cezar Cretu brings the better recent hard form (5 of 7).

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Cezar Cretu carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Cezar Cretu 5 of 7, Felix Alopaeus 3 of 7 on hard recently — Cezar Cretu the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Cretu C.Alopaeus F.
FormLast 10 vs 8 matches · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)3–5
Season win rate63% (35–21) (ahead)40% (2–3)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1746 (ahead)1496
Hard-court ELO1580 (ahead)1497
Serve vs returnLast 53 vs 5 matches
1st-serve points won63%65% (ahead)
Return points won45%45%
Aces / match1.82.0 (ahead)
ClutchLast 53 vs 5 matches
Break points saved52%54% (ahead)

When it starts

CENTER COURT · After 1 match · Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · ~12:30 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast9°C · Overcast
Wind41 km/h
Humidity78%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Cezar Cretu vs Felix Alopaeus — Helsinki Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-15/alopaeus-vs-cretu-helsinki-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 15 November 2026).