Miomir Kecmanovic vs Holger Rune | Stockholm Round of 16

UMPIRY

StockholmR16HardWed 11 Nov · 19:30

Miomir KecmanovicATP #64 · SRB18%

VSStrong favourite · Rune H.

Holger RuneATP #406 · DEN82%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Rune H.

18%82%

Clear edge for Rune H. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Kecmanovic M.4.7/10

Heavy underdog

Rune H.5.6/10

Slight disadvantage

Why

Surface+16 Hard Elo edgeSupports Rune H.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1768Against the prediction · Kecmanovic M.

Head-to-headLeads 3–1 on hardSupports Rune H.

This eventReached the semis here last yearSupports Rune H.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Rune H.

ELO1 834

Hard ELO1 695

Last 103–7

Age27

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $9.2M2026 $980K

ELO2 048

Hard ELO1 913

Last 105–5

Age23

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $15.7M

Miomir Kecmanovic faces Holger Rune in the Stockholm round of 16 on hard. Holger Rune holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 3–1, defending last year's semi-final, a roughly 20-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Under pressure: In the tight moments, Holger Rune has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 90 vs 18).
Freshness: Miomir Kecmanovic comes in with 9 days of rest and 64 games in 14d, vs Holger Rune's 7 and 80.
Last match: Miomir Kecmanovic edged Arthur Rinderknech in three tight sets (7–6 4–6 6–4).

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Kecmanovic M. and Rune H. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Kecmanovic M. went 1–0 (100%) against them, Rune H. 0–1 (0%).

1–0100%Kecmanovic M. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents0–10%Rune H. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

2–0Sets1–2

7–3Games16–14

0–0Tiebreaks0–1

0–0Deciding sets0–1

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Altmaier D.#73W6-3 1-0Indian Wells Masters · hardL6-1 6-7(5) 4-6Shanghai Masters · hard

Head-to-head

4 meetings · Rune H. leads 3–1

Rune H.January 2025Davis Cup QLS R1: SRB vs DENHard6-2 6-4
Rune H.January 2025Australian OpenHard6-7 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-4
Rune H.October 2023BaselHard1-6 7-5 6-3
Kecmanovic M.October 2023StockholmHard7-6 6-2

Evidence

Kecmanovic M.Rune H.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss3–75–5

Season win rate43% (23–31)43% (3–4)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18342048

Hard-court ELO16951913

Serve vs returnLast 53 vs 6 matches

1st-serve points won71%73%

Return points won35%29%

Aces / match4.76.5

ClutchLast 53 vs 6 matches

Break points saved64%48%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

19:30 local

SurfaceHard · medium

Forecast4°C · Overcast

Wind6 km/h

Humidity95%

Court pace medium: balanced pace.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Kecmanovic M.Rune H.

9Days since last match7

0Matches · 7 days1

0Games · 7 days22

2Matches · 14 days3

64Games · 14 days80

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Miomir Kecmanovic vs Holger Rune — Stockholm Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-11/kecmanovic-vs-rune-stockholm-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 11 November 2026).