Bernard Tomic vs Blake Ellis — Brisbane 3 Round of 32
Why
Surface+51 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Tomic B.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1474Against the prediction · Tomic B.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Ellis B.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 763
Hard ELO1 678
Last 106–4
Age34
Height196 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $6.9M2026 $210K
ELO1 682
Hard ELO1 635
Last 106–4
Age27
Height191 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $346K2026 $53K
Bernard Tomic faces Blake Ellis in the Brisbane 3 round of 32 on hard. Bernard Tomic is the paper favourite — ranked #181, a roughly 50-point hard Elo advantage — but Blake Ellis has won their only previous meeting. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Key context
- Head-to-head: Blake Ellis leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Noumea CH 2026.
- Fatigue load: Blake Ellis carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
- Surface form: Both 6 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Common opponents
0 shared · last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.
Evidence
Tomic B.Ellis B.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–46–4
Season win rate54% (33–28)55% (24–20) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1763 (ahead)1682
Hard-court ELO1678 (ahead)1635
Serve vs returnLast 53 vs 41 matches
1st-serve points won72%74% (ahead)
Return points won37% (ahead)35%
Aces / match5.19.7 (ahead)
ClutchLast 53 vs 41 matches
Break points saved63%68% (ahead)
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Bernard Tomic vs Blake Ellis — Brisbane 3 Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-09/ellis-vs-tomic-brisbane-3-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 9 November 2026).