Hiroki Moriya vs Pavle Marinkov | Brisbane 3 Qualifying Round of 16

UMPIRY

Brisbane 3Q16QualifyingHardMon 9 NovCourt 1 · Next on

Hiroki MoriyaATP #455 · JPN67%

VSClear favourite · Moriya H.

Pavle MarinkovATP #664 · AUS33%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Moriya H.

67%33%

Clear edge for Moriya H. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Moriya H.5.2/10

Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Marinkov P.4.5/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form6 of last 10 on hardSupports Moriya H.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Moriya H.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Marinkov P.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 633

Hard ELO1 592

Last 106–4

Age36

Height168 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.1M2026 $21K

ELO1 553

Hard ELO1 525

Last 102–8

Age20

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $120K2026 $39K

Hiroki Moriya faces Pavle Marinkov in the Brisbane 3 qualifying round of 16 on hard. Hiroki Moriya holds the paper edge — ranked #455, leading the head-to-head 1–0.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Hiroki Moriya 116 games in 14 days, Pavle Marinkov 25.
Surface form: Hiroki Moriya 6 of 10, Pavle Marinkov 2 of 10 on hard recently — Hiroki Moriya the sharper of late.
Head-to-head: Hiroki Moriya leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M25 Traralgon 2 2024.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Moriya H. leads 1–0

Moriya H.February 2024M25 Traralgon 2Hard6-3 6-2

Evidence

Moriya H.Marinkov P.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–42–8

Season win rate48% (28–30)38% (8–13)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16331553

Hard-court ELO15921525

Serve vs returnLast 53 vs 20 matches

1st-serve points won68%71%

Return points won40%34%

Aces / match2.45.5

ClutchLast 53 vs 20 matches

Break points saved57%59%

When it starts

Court 1 · Next on · Starts at 10:00

1This match: Moriya H. v Marinkov P.This match
2Fancutt T. v Sach T.Followed by
3Tomic B. v Ellis B.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Court 1

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast22°C · Clear

Wind4 km/h

Humidity49%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Moriya H.Marinkov P.

0Days since last match0

1Matches · 7 days1

19Games · 7 days25

5Matches · 14 days1

116Games · 14 days25

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Hiroki Moriya vs Pavle Marinkov — Brisbane 3 Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-09/marinkov-vs-moriya-brisbane-3-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 9 November 2026).