Leo Borg vs Toby Samuel | Stockholm Round of 32

UMPIRY

StockholmR32HardMon 9 Nov · ~19:30CENTER COURT · After 2 matches

Leo BorgATP #599 · SWE24%

VSClear favourite · Samuel T.

Toby SamuelATP #95 · GBR76%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Samuel T.

24%76%

Clear edge for Samuel T. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Borg L.5.2/10

Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Samuel T.5.3/10

Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form5 of last 10 on hardSupports Samuel T.

Recent run2-match win streakSupports Samuel T.

This eventReached the last 16 here last yearAgainst the prediction · Borg L.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

ELO1 628

Hard ELO1 598

Last 106–4

Age23

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $173K2026 $10K

ELO1 883

Hard ELO1 774

Last 105–5

Age24

Height191 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $651K2026 $536K

Leo Borg faces Toby Samuel in the Stockholm round of 32 on hard. Toby Samuel holds the paper edge — ranked #95. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Last match: Toby Samuel dropped the opening set before beating Adrian Mannarino 3–6 7–5 6–1.
Stage: Leo Borg defends last year's round of 16.
Fatigue load: Toby Samuel carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Borg L.Samuel T.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–45–5

Season win rate59% (16–11)67% (41–20)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16281883

Hard-court ELO15981774

Serve vs returnLast 25 vs 59 matches

1st-serve points won69%70%

Return points won41%40%

Aces / match4.64.5

ClutchLast 25 vs 59 matches

Break points saved60%65%

When it starts

CENTER COURT · After 2 matches · Followed by

1Duckworth J. v Norrie C.5-7 0-6
2Vallejo D. v Humbert U.2-3
3Etcheverry T. v Dahlin M.Not before 18:00
4This match: Borg L. v Samuel T.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · ~19:30 local

SurfaceHard · medium

Forecast4°C · Overcast

Wind14 km/h

Humidity77%

Court pace medium: balanced pace.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Leo Borg vs Toby Samuel — Stockholm Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-09/borg-vs-samuel-stockholm-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 9 November 2026).