Francesca Jones vs Marjorie Souza

UMPIRY

Curitiba Open - CuritibaR16ClayThu 29 Oct · ~13:30Quadra Central · After 1 match

Francesca Jones(1)WTA #98 · GBR81%

VSStrong favourite · Jones F.

Marjorie SouzaWTA #747 · BRA19%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Jones F.

81%19%

Clear edge for Jones F. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Jones F.6.3/10

Marginal edgeBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Souza M.5.9/10

Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form6 of last 10 on clayInformative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 802

Clay ELO1 725

Last 106–4

Age26

EarningsCareer $1.7M2026 $688K

ELO1 532

Clay ELO1 510

Last 106–4

Age23

EarningsCareer $11K2026 $8K

Francesca Jones faces Marjorie Souza in the Curitiba Open - Curitiba round of 16 on clay. Francesca Jones is the paper favourite — ranked #98 — but Marjorie Souza arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 7 on clay to Francesca Jones's 4 of 7.

Key context

Freshness: Francesca Jones comes in with 2 days of rest and 56 games in 14d, vs Marjorie Souza's 2 and 19.
Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Marjorie Souza rising, Francesca Jones cooling.
Surface form: Francesca Jones 4 of 7, Marjorie Souza 5 of 7 on clay recently — Marjorie Souza the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Jones F.Souza M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–46–4

Season win rate59% (33–23)62% (21–13)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18021532

Clay-court ELO17251510

Serve vs returnLast 55 vs 21 matches

1st-serve points won61%60%

Return points won46%50%

Aces / match1.60.6

ClutchLast 55 vs 21 matches

Break points saved56%54%

When it starts

Quadra Central · After 1 match · Followed by

1Riera J. v Kabbaj Y.Starting at 12:00 PM
2This match: Jones F. v Souza M.This match
3Carle M. v Grabher J.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Quadra Central · ~13:30 local

SurfaceClay

Forecast17°C · Drizzle

Wind6 km/h

Humidity86%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Jones F.Souza M.

2Days since last match2

1Matches · 7 days1

19Games · 7 days19

3Matches · 14 days1

56Games · 14 days19

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Francesca Jones vs Marjorie Souza — Curitiba Open - Curitiba Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/jones-vs-souza-curitiba-open-curitiba-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).