Maria Lourdes Carle vs Julia Grabher

UMPIRY

Curitiba Open - CuritibaR16ClayThu 29 Oct · 15:00

Maria Lourdes CarleWTA #239 · ARG33%

VSClear favourite · Grabher J.

Julia Grabher(2)WTA #122 · AUT67%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Grabher J.

33%67%

Clear edge for Grabher J. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Carle M.5.7/10

Slight disadvantage

Grabher J.7.3/10

Strong advantage

Why

Surface+132 Clay Elo edgeSupports Grabher J.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1613Supports Grabher J.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 703

Clay ELO1 688

Last 104–6

Age26

Height166 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.4M2026 $181K

ELO1 758

Clay ELO1 739

Last 108–2

Age30

Height170 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.8M2026 $448K

Maria Lourdes Carle faces Julia Grabher in the Curitiba Open - Curitiba round of 16 on clay. Julia Grabher holds the paper edge — ranked #122, a roughly 130-point clay Elo advantage.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Maria Lourdes Carle 18 games in 14 days, Julia Grabher 47.
Last match: Maria Lourdes Carle handed Laura Pigossi a second-set bagel in a 7–5 6–0 win.
Last match: Julia Grabher edged Carolina Alves in two tight sets (7–5 7–6).

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Carle M. and Grabher J. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Carle M. went 0–1 (0%) against them, Grabher J. 1–0 (100%).

0–10%Carle M. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–0100%Grabher J. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

1–2Sets2–0

13–17Games12–4

0–1Deciding sets0–0

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Sramkova R.#142L4-6 7-5 2-6Roland Garros · clayW6-2 6-2Roland Garros · clay

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Carle M.Grabher J.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–68–2

Season win rate50% (25–25)53% (29–26)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17031758

Clay-court ELO16881739

Serve vs returnLast 48 vs 53 matches

1st-serve points won58%62%

Return points won49%44%

Aces / match0.81.5

ClutchLast 48 vs 53 matches

Break points saved51%54%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

15:00 local

SurfaceClay

Forecast18°C · Drizzle

Wind6 km/h

Humidity74%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Carle M.Grabher J.

2Days since last match2

1Matches · 7 days1

18Games · 7 days25

1Matches · 14 days2

18Games · 14 days47

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Maria Lourdes Carle vs Julia Grabher — Curitiba Open - Curitiba Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/carle-vs-grabher-curitiba-open-curitiba-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).