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Carolina Alves vs Julia Grabher — Curitiba Open - Curitiba Round of 32

Curitiba Open - CuritibaR32ClayTue 27 Oct · 11:00
Carolina AlvesWTA #312 · BRA29%
VSClear favourite · Grabher J.
Julia Grabher(2)WTA #102 · AUT71%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Grabher J.
29%71%

Clear edge for Grabher J. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Alves C.3.8/10
Heavy underdog
Grabher J.6.8/10
Slight advantage
Why
Surface+328 Clay Elo edgeSupports Grabher J.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1613Supports Grabher J.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Surface switchGrass → ClayAgainst the prediction · Alves C.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
ELO1 630
Clay ELO1 625
Last 105–5
Age30
Height170 cm
EarningsCareer $465K2026 $26K
ELO1 755
Clay ELO1 736
Last 107–3
Age30
Height170 cm
EarningsCareer $1.8M2026 $448K

Carolina Alves faces Julia Grabher in the Curitiba Open - Curitiba round of 32 on clay. Julia Grabher holds the paper edge — ranked #102, a roughly 330-point clay Elo advantage.

Key context

  • Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Carolina Alves rising, Julia Grabher cooling.
  • Surface form: Carolina Alves 3 of 5, Julia Grabher 5 of 5 on clay recently — Julia Grabher the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Alves C.Grabher J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–57–3 (ahead)
Season win rate56% (24–19) (ahead)52% (28–26)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO16301755 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO16251736 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 37 vs 52 matches
1st-serve points won62%62%
Return points won48% (ahead)43%
Aces / match1.01.5 (ahead)
ClutchLast 37 vs 52 matches
Break points saved54% (ahead)53%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast16°C · Drizzle
Wind10 km/h
Humidity65%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Carolina Alves vs Julia Grabher — Curitiba Open - Curitiba Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-27/alves-vs-grabher-curitiba-open-curitiba-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 27 October 2026).