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Maya Joint vs Sorana Cirstea — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Round of 32

Toray Pan Pacific Open - TokyoR32HardTue 27 Oct · 02:00 UTC
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Cirstea S.
40%60%

Cirstea S. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Joint M.5.3/10
Clear underdog
Cirstea S.7.0/10
Strong advantage
Why
Surface+257 Hard Elo edgeSupports Cirstea S.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1956Supports Cirstea S.
Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Joint M.
Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on hardAgainst the prediction · Joint M.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Cirstea S.
ELO1 848
Hard ELO1 736
Last 106–4
Age20
Height167 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.6M2026 $1.2M
ELO2 034
Hard ELO1 891
Last 106–4
Age36
Height176 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $13.1M2026 $2.3M

Maya Joint faces Sorana Cirstea in the Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo round of 32 on hard. Sorana Cirstea holds the paper edge — ranked #17, a roughly 260-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.

Key context

  • Freshness: Maya Joint comes in with 1 days of rest and 129 games in 14d, vs Sorana Cirstea's 5 and 72.
  • Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1. Last met at Toronto 2026.
  • Surface form: Both 6 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

8 shared · last 12 months

Joint M. and Cirstea S. faced 8 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Joint M. went 1–7 (13%) against them, Cirstea S. 8–5 (62%). Cirstea S. came out clearly better against 5 of 8 comparable opponents, Joint M. against 0.

1–713%Joint M. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents8–562%Cirstea S. · better vs 5
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
2–15Sets19–12
42–93Games161–141
0–0Tiebreaks2–2
0–2Deciding sets2–3
Show 5 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1
11

Evidence

Joint M.Cirstea S.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–46–4
Season win rate45% (21–26)70% (40–17) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO18482034 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO17361891 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 46 vs 55 matches
1st-serve points won58%68% (ahead)
Return points won44%46% (ahead)
Aces / match1.94.2 (ahead)
ClutchLast 46 vs 55 matches
Break points saved56%56%

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Joint M.Cirstea S.
1Days since last match5 — fresher
3Matches · 7 days2 — fresher
84Games · 7 days40 — fresher
5Matches · 14 days3 — fresher
129Games · 14 days72 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Maya Joint vs Sorana Cirstea — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-27/cirstea-vs-joint-toray-pan-pacific-open-tokyo-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 27 October 2026).