Paula Badosa vs Carol Young Suh Lee

UMPIRY

Guangzhou Open - GuangzhouR32HardMon 26 Oct · 15:30

Paula Badosa(5)WTA #61 · ESP70%

VSClear favourite · Badosa P.

Carol Young Suh LeeWTA #161 · POC30%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Badosa P.

70%30%

Clear edge for Badosa P. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Badosa P.6.7/10

Slight advantage

Lee C.4.2/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+202 Hard Elo edgeSupports Badosa P.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1780Supports Badosa P.

Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Lee C.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 935

Hard ELO1 830

Last 105–5

Age28

EarningsCareer $10.1M2026 $785K

ELO1 729

Hard ELO1 705

Last 105–5

Age24

EarningsCareer $227K2026 $174K

Paula Badosa faces Carol Young Suh Lee in the Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou round of 32 on hard. Paula Badosa holds the paper edge — ranked #61, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Serve & return: Carol Young Suh Lee brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 38), Paula Badosa the stronger return game (Return Rating 51).
Freshness: Workload contrast: Paula Badosa 28 games in 14 days, Carol Young Suh Lee 34.
Last match: Carol Young Suh Lee dropped just 6 games past Elena Pridankina.

Common opponents

3 shared · last 12 months

Badosa P. and Lee C. faced 3 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Badosa P. went 2–1 (67%) against them, Lee C. 0–3 (0%). Badosa P. came out better against 2 of 3 comparable opponents, Lee C. against 0.

2–167%Badosa P. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents0–30%Lee C. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

4–3Sets0–6

38–30Games25–39

0–1Tiebreaks0–1

1–0Deciding sets0–0

Only 3 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

vs Bouzkova M.#26W6-7 6-4 6-2Brisbane · hardL5-7 4-6Livesport Prague Open · hard
vs Selekhmeteva O.#101L4-6 4-6Australian Open · hardL5-7 2-6Madrid 125 · clay
vs Lamens S.#245W6-3 6-2Berlin · grassL6-7 3-6Oeiras 125 · clay

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Badosa P.Lee C.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–55–5

Season win rate57% (27–20)62% (37–23)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19351729

Hard-court ELO18301705

Serve vs returnLast 47 vs 59 matches

1st-serve points won68%65%

Return points won45%43%

Aces / match4.12.9

ClutchLast 47 vs 59 matches

Break points saved55%61%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

15:30 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast32°C · Partly cloudy

Wind7 km/h

Humidity37%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Badosa P.Lee C.

5Days since last match1

1Matches · 7 days1

28Games · 7 days34

1Matches · 14 days1

28Games · 14 days34

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Paula Badosa vs Carol Young Suh Lee — Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-26/badosa-vs-lee-guangzhou-open-guangzhou-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 26 October 2026).