Polina Kudermetova vs Alevtina Ibragimova

UMPIRY

Guangzhou Open - GuangzhouQ32QualifyingHardSat 24 Oct · 11:00

Polina KudermetovaWTA #105 · UZB66%

VSSlight edge · Kudermetova P.

Alevtina IbragimovaWTA #175 · RUS34%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Kudermetova P.

66%34%

Kudermetova P. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Kudermetova P.6.5/10

Marginal edge

Ibragimova A.5.4/10

Clear underdog

Why

Surface+178 Hard Elo edgeSupports Kudermetova P.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1727Supports Kudermetova P.

Recent runLost last 2Informative

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Ibragimova A.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 823

Hard ELO1 703

Last 105–5

Age23

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.7M2026 $426K

ELO1 701

Hard ELO1 600

Last 106–4

Age21

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $187K2026 $100K

Polina Kudermetova faces Alevtina Ibragimova in the Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou qualifying round of 32 on hard. Polina Kudermetova is the paper favourite — ranked #105, a roughly 180-point hard Elo advantage — but Alevtina Ibragimova has won their only previous meeting. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Polina Kudermetova comes in with 1 days of rest and 78 games in 14d, vs Alevtina Ibragimova's 18 and 0.
Head-to-head: Alevtina Ibragimova leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at W50 Macon 1 2024.
Surface form: Both 3 of 6 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Kudermetova P. and Ibragimova A. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Kudermetova P. went 1–0 (100%) against them, Ibragimova A. 1–0 (100%).

1–0100%Kudermetova P. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–0100%Ibragimova A. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

2–1Sets2–0

17–16Games12–7

1–0Tiebreaks0–0

1–0Deciding sets0–0

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Lepchenko V.#187W4-6 7-6(7) 6-4Washington · hardW6-3 6-4Iasi · clay

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Ibragimova A. leads 1–0

Ibragimova A.February 2024W50 Macon 1Hard1-6 6-3 6-1

Evidence

Kudermetova P.Ibragimova A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–56–4

Season win rate63% (40–23)57% (26–20)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18231701

Hard-court ELO17031600

Serve vs returnLast 62 vs 44 matches

1st-serve points won66%57%

Return points won45%48%

Aces / match3.11.5

ClutchLast 62 vs 44 matches

Break points saved54%55%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast28°C · Clear

Wind13 km/h

Humidity48%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Kudermetova P.Ibragimova A.

1Days since last match18

4Matches · 7 days0

63Games · 7 days0

5Matches · 14 days0

78Games · 14 days0

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Polina Kudermetova vs Alevtina Ibragimova — Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-24/ibragimova-vs-kudermetova-guangzhou-open-guangzhou-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 24 October 2026).