Varvara Lepchenko vs Alevtina Ibragimova

Iasi · WTA · Qualifying Final

USA3

Varvara Lepchenko

#172WTA

1578ELO

1533Clay ELO

40 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWLWWLLWLL

0 — 2

Sets

Monday, 13 July 2026 · 15:10

clay

COURT 6 · 2nd on

RUS7

Alevtina Ibragimova

#275WTA

1508ELO

1472Clay ELO

21 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WLWLLWWLWL

Lepchenko V.

3-6 4-6

Ibragimova A.

Lepchenko V.

340

Ibragimova A.

662

Alevtina Ibragimova dropped just seven games in a straight-sets win over Varvara Lepchenko in the Iasi qualifying final.

Key context

Set 1, game 4: Alevtina Ibragimova broke serve.
Set 2, game 1: Alevtina Ibragimova broke serve.
Pressure points: Varvara Lepchenko converted 4 of 9 break points; Alevtina Ibragimova converted 6 of 8 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Lepchenko V.

Ibragimova A.

Break points won

4/9

6/8

Break points saved

2/8

5/9

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Lepchenko V.serving55% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Ibragimova A.

Ibragimova A.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Lepchenko V.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season

Lepchenko V.Ibragimova A.

1st serve in·Slight edge

65%

70%

1st serve points won·Even

62%

58%

2nd serve points won·Even

43%

44%

Service points won·Even

55%

54%

Return points won·Even

43%

47%

Break points saved·Even

56%

Aces / match·Clear edge

3.5

1.2

Double faults / match·Slight edge

3.0

2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:21 UTC

Lepchenko V.50%

Ibragimova A.50%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Lepchenko V.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Ibragimova A.

5.1

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.8+61 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.2Clay Elo 1472

5.6Overall Elo 1578

ELO gap

4.4Overall Elo 1508

7.0Leads 1–0 on clay

H2H

3.0Trails 0–1 on clay

6.16 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

5.96 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.