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Kimberly Birrell vs Aoi Ito — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Qualifying Round of 32

Toray Pan Pacific Open - TokyoQ32QualifyingHardSat 24 Oct · 04:30 UTC
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Birrell K.
58%42%

Birrell K. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Birrell K.7.2/10
Strong advantage
Ito A.5.0/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+183 Hard Elo edgeSupports Birrell K.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1754Supports Birrell K.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headLeads 2–0 on hardSupports Birrell K.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 835
Hard ELO1 743
Last 107–3
Age28
EarningsCareer $3.2M2026 $1.1M
ELO1 717
Hard ELO1 681
Last 104–6
Age22
EarningsCareer $898K2026 $396K

Kimberly Birrell faces Aoi Ito in the Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo qualifying round of 32 on hard. Kimberly Birrell holds the paper edge — ranked #41, leading the head-to-head 3–0, a roughly 180-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

6 shared · last 12 months

Birrell K. and Ito A. faced 6 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Birrell K. went 5–4 (56%) against them, Ito A. 1–7 (13%). Birrell K. came out clearly better against 4 of 6 comparable opponents, Ito A. against 0.

5–456%Birrell K. · better vs 4Record vs common opponents1–713%Ito A. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
11–11Sets5–15
99–105Games73–108
1–1Tiebreaks1–2
3–1Deciding sets1–3
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Head-to-head

3 meetings · Birrell K. leads 3–0
30

Hard: Birrell K. leads 2–0 · Carpet: Birrell K. leads 1–0

Evidence

Birrell K.Ito A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate54% (30–26) (ahead)42% (20–28)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1835 (ahead)1717
Hard-court ELO1743 (ahead)1681
Serve vs returnLast 53 vs 47 matches
1st-serve points won64% (ahead)58%
Return points won44%45% (ahead)
Aces / match1.9 (ahead)1.1
ClutchLast 53 vs 47 matches
Break points saved53% (ahead)51%

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Birrell K.Ito A.
10 — fresherDays since last match5
0 — fresherMatches · 7 days2
0 — fresherGames · 7 days50
1 — fresherMatches · 14 days5
35 — fresherGames · 14 days106
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Kimberly Birrell vs Aoi Ito — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-24/birrell-vs-ito-toray-pan-pacific-open-tokyo-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 24 October 2026).