Ann Li vs Zeynep Sonmez — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 16
Why
Surface+16 Hard Elo edgeSupports Li A.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1806Supports Li A.
Head-to-headLeads 2–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Sonmez Z.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysBoth players
ELO1 962
Hard ELO1 820
Last 107–3
Age26
Height170 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $4.6M2026 $1.5M
ELO1 872
Hard ELO1 731
Last 105–5
Age24
Height170 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.4M2026 $1.1M
Ann Li faces Zeynep Sonmez in the Japan Open - Osaka round of 16 on hard. Ann Li is the paper favourite — ranked #25, a roughly 20-point hard Elo advantage — but Zeynep Sonmez has won all three of their previous meetings.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Ann Li 96 games in 14 days, Zeynep Sonmez 69.
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Ann Li grades 49 on serve, Zeynep Sonmez 61 on return.
- Last match: Ann Li dropped the opening set before beating Emerson Jones 5–7 6–0 6–3.
Common opponents
9 shared · last 12 monthsLi A. and Sonmez Z. faced 9 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Li A. went 6–5 (55%) against them, Sonmez Z. 5–6 (45%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 1 better-results split).
6–555%Li A. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents5–645%Sonmez Z. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
14–13Sets11–16
126–125Games122–143
1–2Tiebreaks2–1
3–2Deciding sets4–2
vs Gauff C.#5L1-6 6-7(3)Cincinnati · hardL3-6 4-6US Open · hard
vs Bencic B.#14W6-4 6-3Beijing · hardL3-6 2-6Miami · hard
vs Fernandez L.#30L3-6 2-6Madrid · clayL7-6 1-6 6-7Stuttgart · clay
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vs Alexandrova E.#33W4-6 6-4 6-3Strasbourg · clayW7-5 4-6 6-4Australian Open · hard- vs Volynets K.#73W4-6 7-5 6-2Hobart · hardW6-3 2-6 6-3s Hertogenbosch · grass
vs Kasatkina D.#74W6-7 6-2 6-4Rouen · clayL4-6 4-6Roland Garros · clay
vs Linette M.#77L3-6 3-6Australian Open · hardL4-6 2-6s Hertogenbosch · grass- vs Golubic V.#82L3-6 6-2 3-6Nottingham · grassL5-7 6-4 4-6Nottingham · grass
- vs Joint M.#90W6-1 6-2Strasbourg · clayW3-6 6-4 6-3Japan Open - Osaka · hard
Head-to-head
3 meetings · Sonmez Z. leads 3–003
Grass: Sonmez Z. leads 1–0 · Hard: Sonmez Z. leads 2–0
- Sonmez Z.June 2026WimbledonGrass5-7 6-1 4-6
- Sonmez Z.February 2026MeridaHard3-6 7-6 6-4
- Sonmez Z.October 2024MeridaHard6-2 6-1
Evidence
Li A.Sonmez Z.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate55% (31–25)59% (33–23) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1962 (ahead)1872
Hard-court ELO1820 (ahead)1731
Serve vs returnLast 54 vs 55 matches
1st-serve points won69% (ahead)61%
Return points won42%46% (ahead)
Aces / match5.2 (ahead)1.1
ClutchLast 54 vs 55 matches
Break points saved60% (ahead)53%
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Ann Li vs Zeynep Sonmez — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/li-vs-sonmez-japan-open-osaka-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).