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Ann Li vs Emerson Jones — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 32

Japan Open - OsakaR32HardTue 20 Oct · 11:30
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Li A.
71%29%

Clear edge for Li A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Li A.6.7/10
Slight advantage
Jones E.5.7/10
Slight disadvantage
Why
Surface+82 Hard Elo edgeSupports Li A.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1806Supports Li A.
Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Jones E.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 963
Hard ELO1 820
Last 107–3
Age26
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $4.6M2026 $1.5M
ELO1 735
Hard ELO1 665
Last 105–5
Age18
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $693K2026 $388K

Ann Li faces Emerson Jones in the Japan Open - Osaka round of 32 on hard. Ann Li holds the paper edge — ranked #31, a roughly 80-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

5 shared · last 12 months

Li A. and Jones E. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Li A. went 2–4 (33%) against them, Jones E. 1–4 (20%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 0 better-results split).

2–433%Li A. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents1–420%Jones E. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
4–10Sets1–8
50–71Games26–48
1–0Tiebreaks0–0
1–0Deciding sets0–0
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Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Li A.Jones E.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate55% (30–25)55% (26–21) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1963 (ahead)1735
Hard-court ELO1820 (ahead)1665
Serve vs returnLast 53 vs 44 matches
1st-serve points won69% (ahead)63%
Return points won42%45% (ahead)
Aces / match5.2 (ahead)1.7
ClutchLast 53 vs 44 matches
Break points saved60% (ahead)54%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast23°C · Rain
Wind4 km/h
Humidity97%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Li A.Jones E.
2 — fresherDays since last match0
4Matches · 7 days2 — fresher
79Games · 7 days24 — fresher
6Matches · 14 days4 — fresher
115Games · 14 days69 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Ann Li vs Emerson Jones — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-20/jones-vs-li-japan-open-osaka-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 20 October 2026).