Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Mikhail Kukushkin

UMPIRY

AlmatyR16HardWed 21 Oct · 19:30CENTER COURT · After 3 matches

Stefanos Tsitsipas(7)ATP #39 · GRE88%

VSStrong favourite · Tsitsipas S.

Mikhail KukushkinATP #389 · KAZ12%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Tsitsipas S.

88%12%

Clear edge for Tsitsipas S. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 8 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Tsitsipas S.6.4/10

Marginal edge

Kukushkin M.4.9/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+277 Hard Elo edgeSupports Tsitsipas S.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1833Supports Tsitsipas S.

Head-to-headLeads 3–0 on hardInformative

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Kukushkin M.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO2 060

Hard ELO1 911

Last 107–3

Age28

Height193 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $38.2M2026 $1.4M

ELO1 744

Hard ELO1 658

Last 104–6

Age38

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $7.6M2026 $48K

Stefanos Tsitsipas faces Mikhail Kukushkin in the Almaty round of 16 on hard. Stefanos Tsitsipas holds the paper edge — ranked #39, leading the head-to-head 5–0, a roughly 280-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Stefanos Tsitsipas 92 games in 14 days, Mikhail Kukushkin 26.
Under pressure: Stefanos Tsitsipas has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 87 vs Mikhail Kukushkin's 16).
Last match: Mikhail Kukushkin won all two sets in tiebreaks against Stefanos Sakellaridis.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

5 meetings · Tsitsipas S. leads 5–0

Hard: Tsitsipas S. leads 3–0 · Clay: Tsitsipas S. leads 2–0

Tsitsipas S.October 2022AstanaHard6-3 6-4
Tsitsipas S.April 2019Monte Carlo MastersClay6-3 7-5
Tsitsipas S.February 2019MarseilleHard7-5 7-6
Tsitsipas S.May 2018Rome MastersClay5-7 6-3 7-6
Tsitsipas S.February 2018DubaiHard6-2 6-7 6-3

Evidence

Tsitsipas S.Kukushkin M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–34–6

Season win rate64% (37–21)56% (23–18)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO20601744

Hard-court ELO19111658

Serve vs returnLast 55 vs 39 matches

1st-serve points won77%69%

Return points won34%40%

Aces / match7.62.5

ClutchLast 55 vs 39 matches

Break points saved64%58%

When it starts

CENTER COURT · After 3 matches · Not before 19:30

1Duckworth J. v Darderi L.Starts at 11:30
2Nurlanuly Z. v Machac T.Followed by
3Mannarino A. v Rublev A.Followed by
4This match: Tsitsipas S. v Kukushkin M.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · 19:30 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast11°C · Overcast

Wind3 km/h

Humidity50%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Tsitsipas S.Kukushkin M.

6Days since last match1

1Matches · 7 days1

22Games · 7 days26

4Matches · 14 days1

92Games · 14 days26

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Mikhail Kukushkin — Almaty Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/kukushkin-vs-tsitsipas-almaty-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).