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Viktorija Golubic vs Mai Hontama — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 32

Japan Open - OsakaR32HardMon 19 Oct · 11:30
Viktorija GolubicWTA #72 · SUI59%
VSSlight edge · Golubic V.
Mai HontamaWTA #164 · JPN41%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Golubic V.
59%41%

Golubic V. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Golubic V.6.8/10
Slight advantage
Hontama M.4.9/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+278 Hard Elo edgeSupports Golubic V.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1775Supports Golubic V.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardInformative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Hontama M.
Recent runLost last 2Both players
ELO1 860
Hard ELO1 709
Last 105–5
Age34
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $5.8M2026 $949K
ELO1 713
Hard ELO1 640
Last 105–5
Age27
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.2M2026 $167K

Viktorija Golubic faces Mai Hontama in the Japan Open - Osaka round of 32 on hard. Viktorija Golubic holds the paper edge — ranked #72, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 280-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Freshness: Workload contrast: Viktorija Golubic 48 games in 14 days, Mai Hontama 16.
  • Head-to-head: Viktorija Golubic leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Lyon 2022.
  • Surface form: Both 5 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

4 shared · last 12 months

Golubic V. and Hontama M. faced 4 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Golubic V. went 2–3 (40%) against them, Hontama M. 1–3 (25%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 1 better-results split).

2–340%Golubic V. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents1–325%Hontama M. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
5–6Sets3–6
49–50Games41–47
0–0Tiebreaks1–0
0–1Deciding sets0–1

Only 4 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

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Head-to-head

1 meeting · Golubic V. leads 1–0
10

Evidence

Golubic V.Hontama M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–55–5
Season win rate54% (28–24)55% (30–25) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1860 (ahead)1713
Hard-court ELO1709 (ahead)1640
Serve vs returnLast 50 vs 52 matches
1st-serve points won59% (ahead)58%
Return points won47%48% (ahead)
Aces / match1.0 (ahead)0.8
ClutchLast 50 vs 52 matches
Break points saved54% (ahead)51%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast24°C · Mainly clear
Wind2 km/h
Humidity68%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Golubic V.Hontama M.
8Days since last match12 — fresher
0Matches · 7 days0
0Games · 7 days0
2Matches · 14 days1 — fresher
48Games · 14 days16 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Viktorija Golubic vs Mai Hontama — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/golubic-vs-hontama-japan-open-osaka-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).