Mai Hontama vs Lilli Tagger — Livesport Prague Open Round of 16
Hontama M.
Mai Hontama faces Lilli Tagger in the Livesport Prague Open round of 16 on hard. Lilli Tagger is the paper favourite — ranked #74, a roughly 250-point hard Elo advantage — but Mai Hontama rides a 3-match win streak. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Tagger L. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Mai Hontama comes in with 2 days of rest and 89 games in 14d, vs Lilli Tagger's 6 and 45.
- Last match: Lilli Tagger dropped just 6 games past Xinyu Gao.
- Last match: Mai Hontama handed Diane Parry a second-set bagel in a 6–4 6–0 win.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadHontama M.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d) · Tagger L.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.