Mai Hontama vs Alycia Parks — Athens Round of 16
Hontama M.
Mai Hontama faces Alycia Parks in the Athens round of 16 on hard. Alycia Parks holds the paper edge — ranked #70, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 00:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Parks A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Mai Hontama comes in with 19 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Alycia Parks's 12 and 36.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Alycia Parks has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 61 vs 29).
- Last match: Mai Hontama edged Magda Linette in two tight sets (6–4 7–5).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on hard
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadHontama M.: 19 days rest · Parks A.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-21 | Prague | R32 | clay | Alycia Parks | 6-4 6-2 |