Jacob Fearnley vs Hugo Gaston — European Open - Brussels Round of 32
Why
Surface+63 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Gaston H.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1622Against the prediction · Gaston H.
Recent run4-match win streakSupports Fearnley J.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Fearnley J.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 898
Hard ELO1 742
Last 107–3
Age25
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.0M2026 $611K
ELO1 836
Hard ELO1 714
Last 106–4
Age26
Height173 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $4.2M2026 $566K
Jacob Fearnley faces Hugo Gaston in the European Open - Brussels round of 32 on hard. Hugo Gaston is the paper favourite — ranked #89, a roughly 60-point hard Elo advantage — but Jacob Fearnley rides a 4-match win streak. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Key context
- Under pressure: Jacob Fearnley has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 85 vs Hugo Gaston's 61).
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Jacob Fearnley grades 8 on serve, Hugo Gaston 60 on return.
- Win streak: Jacob Fearnley arrives on a 4-match winning run.
Common opponents
3 shared · last 12 monthsFearnley J. and Gaston H. faced 3 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Fearnley J. went 2–2 (50%) against them, Gaston H. 1–2 (33%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 1 better-results split).
2–250%Fearnley J. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents1–233%Gaston H. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
4–5Sets3–4
42–46Games31–34
0–0Tiebreaks1–1
1–0Deciding sets0–2
Only 3 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.
vs Rublev A.#23L1-6 4-6Paris Masters · hardL7-6(6) 6-7(4) 1-6Hangzhou · hard
vs Dzumhur D.#103W6-3 6-3Indian Wells Masters · hardW5-0Estoril · clay
vs Budkov Kjaer N.#152W3-6 6-3 10-7NOR vs GBR · hardL2-6 6-3 4-6Cincinnati · hard
Head-to-head
They have not met before.
Evidence
Fearnley J.Gaston H.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)6–4
Season win rate60% (35–23) (ahead)54% (34–29)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1898 (ahead)1836
Hard-court ELO1742 (ahead)1714
Serve vs returnLast 55 vs 57 matches
1st-serve points won71% (ahead)68%
Return points won41% (ahead)40%
Aces / match5.0 (ahead)2.6
ClutchLast 55 vs 57 matches
Break points saved56%60% (ahead)
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Jacob Fearnley vs Hugo Gaston — European Open - Brussels Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/fearnley-vs-gaston-european-open-brussels-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).