UMPIRY
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Martin Damm vs Andrea Guerrieri — European Open - Brussels Qualifying Round of 8

European Open - BrusselsQ8QualifyingHardSun 18 Oct · 16:00CENTRE COURT · After 2 matches
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Damm M.
64%36%

Damm M. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Damm M.5.4/10
Clear underdog
Guerrieri A.4.4/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+263 Hard Elo edgeSupports Damm M.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1706Supports Damm M.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Guerrieri A.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 856
Hard ELO1 745
Last 104–6
Age23
Height203 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $1.1M2026 $566K
ELO1 796
Hard ELO1 684
Last 106–4
Age27
Height180 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $191K2026 $105K

Martin Damm faces Andrea Guerrieri in the European Open - Brussels qualifying round of 8 on hard. Martin Damm is the paper favourite — ranked #104, a roughly 260-point hard Elo advantage — but Andrea Guerrieri arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 10 on hard to Martin Damm's 4 of 10.

Key context

Common opponents

2 shared · last 12 months

Damm M. and Guerrieri A. faced 2 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Damm M. went 1–1 (50%) against them, Guerrieri A. 1–1 (50%).

1–150%Damm M. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–150%Guerrieri A. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
2–1Sets2–3
17–9Games21–28
0–0Tiebreaks1–0

Only 2 common opponents — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Damm M.Guerrieri A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–66–4 (ahead)
Season win rate55% (33–27)65% (39–21) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1856 (ahead)1796
Hard-court ELO1745 (ahead)1684
Serve vs returnLast 57 vs 59 matches
1st-serve points won77% (ahead)67%
Return points won32%43% (ahead)
Aces / match12.2 (ahead)2.0
ClutchLast 57 vs 59 matches
Break points saved65% (ahead)61%

When it starts

CENTRE COURT · After 2 matches · Not before 16:00

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTRE COURT · 16:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast11°C · Overcast
Wind7 km/h
Humidity75%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Damm M.Guerrieri A.
1Days since last match1
1 — fresherMatches · 7 days3
17 — fresherGames · 7 days59
2 — fresherMatches · 14 days3
52 — fresherGames · 14 days59
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Martin Damm vs Andrea Guerrieri — European Open - Brussels Qualifying Round of 8", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-18/damm-vs-guerrieri-european-open-brussels-q8?utm_source=cite (as of 18 October 2026).