Spencer Johnson vs Erik Arutiunian

UMPIRY

Fort WorthQ32QualifyingHardSun 18 Oct · ~15:30COURT V5 · After 3 matches

Spencer JohnsonATP #443 · USA46%

VSToss-up

Erik ArutiunianATP #591 · BLR54%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

46%54%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Johnson S.5.7/10

Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Arutiunian E.6.2/10

Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form7 of last 10 on hardSupports Arutiunian E.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Arutiunian E.

CountryWon 73% in USA (66)Against the prediction · Johnson S.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 628

Hard ELO1 607

Last 105–5

Age23

EarningsCareer $63K2026 $55K

ELO1 663

Hard ELO1 639

Last 106–4

Age21

EarningsCareer $62K2026 $4K

Spencer Johnson faces Erik Arutiunian in the Fort Worth qualifying round of 32 on hard. They have met once, Erik Arutiunian leading 1–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Head-to-head: Erik Arutiunian leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Tiburon 2026.
Fatigue load: Spencer Johnson carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Spencer Johnson 5 of 10, Erik Arutiunian 6 of 10 on hard recently — Erik Arutiunian the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Arutiunian E. leads 1–0

Arutiunian E.September 2026TiburonHard6-7(4) 6-7(6)

Evidence

Johnson S.Arutiunian E.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–56–4

Season win rate76% (25–8)63% (12–7)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16281663

Hard-court ELO16071639

Serve vs returnLast 24 vs 16 matches

1st-serve points won74%70%

Return points won38%35%

Aces / match7.75.6

ClutchLast 24 vs 16 matches

Break points saved63%64%

When it starts

COURT V5 · After 3 matches · Followed by

1Poling K. v Rybakov A.Starts at 11:00
2Woestendick C. v Artnak B.Followed by
3Pedrico Kravtsov A. v Ostapenkov D.Followed by
4This match: Johnson S. v Arutiunian E.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT V5 · ~15:30 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast21°C · Clear

Wind7 km/h

Humidity33%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Spencer Johnson vs Erik Arutiunian — Fort Worth Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-18/arutiunian-vs-johnson-fort-worth-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 18 October 2026).