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Karl Poling vs Alex Rybakov — Fort Worth Qualifying Round of 32

Fort WorthQ32QualifyingHardSun 18 Oct · 11:00COURT V5 · Next on
Karl PolingATP #459 · USA46%
VSToss-up
Alex RybakovATP #707 · USA54%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
46%54%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Poling K.5.2/10
Clear underdog
Rybakov A.5.8/10
Slight disadvantage
Why
Surface+10 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Poling K.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1352Supports Rybakov A.
Recent runLost last 3Informative
CountryWon 60% in USA (188)Supports Rybakov A.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 583
Hard ELO1 552
Last 103–7
Age27
Height185 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $90K2026 $27K
ELO1 643
Hard ELO1 598
Last 104–6
Age29
Height185 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $255K2026 $23K

Karl Poling faces Alex Rybakov in the Fort Worth qualifying round of 32 on hard. Karl Poling holds the paper edge — ranked #459. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Poling K.Rybakov A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–74–6 (ahead)
Season win rate50% (23–23) (ahead)38% (12–20)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15831643 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15521598 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 43 vs 28 matches
1st-serve points won66%69% (ahead)
Return points won39% (ahead)37%
Aces / match2.04.9 (ahead)
ClutchLast 43 vs 28 matches
Break points saved58%60% (ahead)

When it starts

COURT V5 · Next on · Starts at 11:00

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT V5 · 11:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast15°C · Clear
Wind3 km/h
Humidity58%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Poling K.Rybakov A.
21 — fresherDays since last match20
0Matches · 7 days0
0Games · 7 days0
0Matches · 14 days0
0Games · 14 days0
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Karl Poling vs Alex Rybakov — Fort Worth Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-18/poling-vs-rybakov-fort-worth-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 18 October 2026).