Jacob Fearnley vs Luca Nardi | Olbia Semi-final

UMPIRY

OlbiaSemi-finalHardSat 17 Oct · ~16:30CLOTO ARENA · After 1 match

Jacob Fearnley(1)ATP #96 · GBR69%

VSClear favourite · Fearnley J.

Luca NardiATP #251 · ITA31%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Fearnley J.

69%31%

Clear edge for Fearnley J. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Fearnley J.5.4/10

Clear underdog

Nardi L.5.0/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+7 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Nardi L.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1600Supports Fearnley J.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Fearnley J.

Recent run3-match win streakBoth players

Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players

ELO1 896

Hard ELO1 739

Last 107–3

Age25

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $2.0M2026 $611K

ELO1 764

Hard ELO1 662

Last 105–5

Age23

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $2.4M2026 $256K

Jacob Fearnley faces Luca Nardi in the Olbia semi-final on hard. Jacob Fearnley holds the paper edge — ranked #96, leading the head-to-head 1–0.

Key context

Under pressure: Jacob Fearnley has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 85 vs Luca Nardi's 4).
Freshness: Workload contrast: Jacob Fearnley 54 games in 14 days, Luca Nardi 87.
Last match: Jacob Fearnley handed Maxim Mrva a first-set bagel in a 6–0 7–6 win.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Fearnley J. leads 1–0

Fearnley J.June 2026IlkleyGrass6-4 0-6 3-6

Evidence

Fearnley J.Nardi L.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–35–5

Season win rate60% (34–23)49% (17–18)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18961764

Hard-court ELO17391662

Serve vs returnLast 54 vs 34 matches

1st-serve points won71%68%

Return points won40%39%

Aces / match5.14.1

ClutchLast 54 vs 34 matches

Break points saved56%65%

When it starts

CLOTO ARENA · After 1 match · Followed by

1Kasnikowski M. v Dzumhur D.Not before 15:00
2This match: Fearnley J. v Nardi L.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CLOTO ARENA · ~16:30 local

SurfaceHard · medium-slow

Forecast23°C · Partly cloudy

Wind13 km/h

Humidity69%

Court pace medium-slow: favours grinders.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Fearnley J.Nardi L.

1Days since last match1

3Matches · 7 days3

54Games · 7 days67

3Matches · 14 days4

54Games · 14 days87

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Jacob Fearnley vs Luca Nardi — Olbia Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-17/fearnley-vs-nardi-olbia-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 17 October 2026).