Maks Kasnikowski vs Damir Dzumhur | Olbia Semi-final

UMPIRY

OlbiaSemi-finalHardSat 17 Oct · 15:00CLOTO ARENA · Next on

Maks KasnikowskiATP #238 · POL63%

VSSlight edge · Kasnikowski M.

Damir Dzumhur(2)ATP #103 · BIH37%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Kasnikowski M.

63%37%

Kasnikowski M. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Kasnikowski M.4.7/10

Heavy underdog

Dzumhur D.5.8/10

Slight disadvantage

Why

Surface+227 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Dzumhur D.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1638Against the prediction · Dzumhur D.

Long matches3 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Kasnikowski M.

Recent run3-match win streakBoth players

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

ELO1 758

Hard ELO1 665

Last 107–3

Age23

Height180 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $384K2026 $53K

ELO1 807

Hard ELO1 656

Last 105–5

Age34

Height175 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $7.1M2026 $735K

Maks Kasnikowski faces Damir Dzumhur in the Olbia semi-final on hard. Damir Dzumhur holds the paper edge — ranked #103, a roughly 230-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Maks Kasnikowski comes in with 1 days of rest and 74 games in 14d, vs Damir Dzumhur's 1 and 117.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Damir Dzumhur has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 62 vs 14).
Last match: Damir Dzumhur handed Tom Gentzsch a first-set bagel in a 6–0 6–3 win.

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Kasnikowski M. and Dzumhur D. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Kasnikowski M. went 0–1 (0%) against them, Dzumhur D. 1–0 (100%).

0–10%Kasnikowski M. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–0100%Dzumhur D. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

1–2Sets2–0

16–17Games14–11

0–1Tiebreaks1–0

0–1Deciding sets0–0

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Budkov Kjaer N.#152L6-7(2) 6-4 4-6US Open · hardW7-6 7-5Monte Carlo Masters · clay

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Kasnikowski M.Dzumhur D.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–35–5

Season win rate63% (38–22)42% (21–29)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17581807

Hard-court ELO16651656

Serve vs returnLast 57 vs 48 matches

1st-serve points won73%62%

Return points won40%40%

Aces / match4.01.4

ClutchLast 57 vs 48 matches

Break points saved55%54%

When it starts

CLOTO ARENA · Next on · Not before 15:00

1This match: Kasnikowski M. v Dzumhur D.This match
2Fearnley J. v Nardi L.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CLOTO ARENA · 15:00 local

SurfaceHard · medium-slow

Forecast24°C · Partly cloudy

Wind16 km/h

Humidity65%

Court pace medium-slow: favours grinders.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Kasnikowski M.Dzumhur D.

1Days since last match1

3Matches · 7 days3

54Games · 7 days66

4Matches · 14 days5

74Games · 14 days117

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Maks Kasnikowski vs Damir Dzumhur — Olbia Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-17/dzumhur-vs-kasnikowski-olbia-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 17 October 2026).