Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov KjaerUS Open Qualifying Round of 256

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 256
#253ATP
1400ELO
1369Hard ELO
23 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWLLW
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 26 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 16 · 3rd on
#149ATP
1620ELO
1598Hard ELO
$293kYTD
$747kCAREER
19 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLLLLW
Kasnikowski M.
6-7 6-4 4-6
Budkov Kjaer N.
Kasnikowski M.
62641
Budkov Kjaer N.
77462

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer defeated Maks Kasnikowski in the US Open qualifying second round. The match ended with a score of 6-7, 6-4, 4-6 in favor of Kjaer. Both players recorded equal numbers of aces and service breaks, while Kjaer had more double faults and a higher first-serve win percentage than Kasnikowski.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
56%
51%
Service points won·Even
66%
63%
Return points won·Even
40%
38%
Break points saved·Even
58%
59%
Aces / match·Even
4.0
4.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.3
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
14
67
Break points saved·Clear edge
56
78
Break points won·Clear edge
16
39
Deciding sets·Dominant
19
96
Tiebreaks·Dominant
38
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Kasnikowski M.48%
Budkov Kjaer N.52%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.1Hard Elo 1369
Surface ELO
7.9+229 Hard Elo edge
2.3Overall Elo 1400
ELO gap
7.7Overall Elo 1620
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.47 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.36 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
84
72

Kasnikowski M.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 33 games (7d) · Budkov Kjaer N.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°CMainly clear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 46%

Draw