Ilya Ivashka vs Marat Sharipov — Jinan Round of 32

JinanR32HardWed 14 Oct · 11:00COURT 2 · Next on
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Sharipov M.
39%61%

Sharipov M. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Ivashka I.7.4/10
Dominant favourite
Sharipov M.4.9/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+93 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Ivashka I.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1538Against the prediction · Ivashka I.
Recent run7-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Ivashka I.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Ivashka I.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Ivashka I.
ELO1 811
Hard ELO1 729
Last 109–1
Age32
Height193 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $3.4M2026 $35K
ELO1 770
Hard ELO1 722
Last 108–2
Age24
Height188 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $160K2026 $24K

Ilya Ivashka faces Marat Sharipov in the Jinan round of 32 on hard. Ilya Ivashka holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Ivashka I. leads 1–0
10

Evidence

Ivashka I.Sharipov M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss9–1 (ahead)8–2
Season win rate72% (34–13) (ahead)65% (36–19)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1811 (ahead)1770
Hard-court ELO1729 (ahead)1722
Serve vs returnLast 25 vs 47 matches
1st-serve points won72%79% (ahead)
Return points won41% (ahead)39%
Aces / match4.110.0 (ahead)
ClutchLast 25 vs 47 matches
Break points saved56%66% (ahead)

When it starts

COURT 2 · Next on · Starts at 11:00

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT 2 · 11:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast22°C · Clear
Wind20 km/h
Humidity42%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Ivashka I.Sharipov M.
1 — fresherDays since last match0
2Matches · 7 days2
34Games · 7 days29 — fresher
2 — fresherMatches · 14 days6
34 — fresherGames · 14 days114
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Ilya Ivashka vs Marat Sharipov — Jinan Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-14/ivashka-vs-sharipov-jinan-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 14 October 2026).