Dane Sweeny vs Bernard Tomic — Jinan Round of 32

JinanR32HardTue 13 Oct · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Sweeny D.
61%39%

Sweeny D. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Sweeny D.6.1/10
Even match
Tomic B.6.2/10
Even match
Why
Surface+2 Hard Elo edgeInformative
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1474Against the prediction · Tomic B.
Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on hardSupports Sweeny D.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysBoth players
ELO1 813
Hard ELO1 717
Last 105–5
Age25
Height170 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.0M2026 $400K
ELO1 767
Hard ELO1 682
Last 107–3
Age33
Height196 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $6.9M2026 $210K

Dane Sweeny faces Bernard Tomic in the Jinan round of 32 on hard. Dane Sweeny is the paper favourite — ranked #112 — but Bernard Tomic arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on hard to Dane Sweeny's 5 of 10. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.

Key context

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Sweeny D. and Tomic B. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Sweeny D. went 0–1 (0%) against them, Tomic B. 0–1 (0%).

0–10%Sweeny D. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents0–10%Tomic B. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
1–2Sets0–2
14–19Games8–12
1–0Tiebreaks0–0
0–1Deciding sets0–0

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1
11

Evidence

Sweeny D.Tomic B.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–57–3 (ahead)
Season win rate53% (29–26)55% (33–27) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1813 (ahead)1767
Hard-court ELO1717 (ahead)1682
Serve vs returnLast 39 matches each
1st-serve points won67%72% (ahead)
Return points won39% (ahead)36%
Aces / match3.45.5 (ahead)
ClutchLast 39 matches each
Break points saved60%61% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast19°C · Drizzle
Wind15 km/h
Humidity73%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Sweeny D.Tomic B.
5 — fresherDays since last match3
2 — fresherMatches · 7 days3
43 — fresherGames · 7 days65
5Matches · 14 days5
108 — fresherGames · 14 days130
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Dane Sweeny vs Bernard Tomic — Jinan Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/sweeny-vs-tomic-jinan-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).