Elmer Moller vs Lukas Neumayer | Maia Round of 32

UMPIRY

MaiaR32ClayTue 13 Oct · 11:00

Elmer MollerATP #181 · DEN51%

VSToss-up

Lukas NeumayerATP #180 · AUT49%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

51%49%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Moller E.6.0/10

Even match

Neumayer L.6.4/10

Marginal edge

Why

Surface+5 Clay Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Neumayer L.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1621Against the prediction · Neumayer L.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on clayAgainst the prediction · Neumayer L.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Neumayer L.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 781

Clay ELO1 736

Last 105–5

Age23

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $742K2026 $170K

ELO1 752

Clay ELO1 718

Last 106–4

Age24

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $623K2026 $180K

Elmer Moller faces Lukas Neumayer in the Maia round of 32 on clay. Lukas Neumayer holds the paper edge — ranked #180, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Elmer Moller 135 games in 14 days, Lukas Neumayer 88.
Under pressure: Elmer Moller has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 69 vs Lukas Neumayer's 40).
Head-to-head: Lukas Neumayer leads the head-to-head 2–0, 0–1 on clay. Last met at Menorca CH 2025.

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Moller E. and Neumayer L. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Moller E. went 0–1 (0%) against them, Neumayer L. 0–1 (0%).

0–10%Moller E. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents0–10%Neumayer L. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

1–2Sets0–2

14–17Games6–12

0–1Deciding sets0–0

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Wong C.#101L7-5 3-6 4-6US Open · hardL3-6 3-6US Open · hard

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Neumayer L. leads 2–0

Clay: Neumayer L. leads 1–0 · Hard: Neumayer L. leads 1–0

Neumayer L.March 2025Menorca CHClay6-3 6-4
Neumayer L.January 2025Australian OpenHard6-7(5) 6-3 6-4

Evidence

Moller E.Neumayer L.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–56–4

Season win rate48% (22–24)60% (38–25)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17811752

Clay-court ELO17361718

Serve vs returnLast 28 vs 46 matches

1st-serve points won61%67%

Return points won40%40%

Aces / match2.02.8

ClutchLast 28 vs 46 matches

Break points saved56%59%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local

SurfaceClay · slow

Forecast19°C · Partly cloudy

Wind3 km/h

Humidity80%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Moller E.Neumayer L.

1Days since last match1

4Matches · 7 days4

116Games · 7 days88

5Matches · 14 days4

135Games · 14 days88

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Elmer Moller vs Lukas Neumayer — Maia Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/moller-vs-neumayer-maia-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).