Daria Snigur vs Elise Mertens — Wuhan Round of 128

WuhanR128HardTue 13 Oct · ~14:00Court 2 · After 2 matches
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Mertens E.
38%62%

Mertens E. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Snigur D.6.2/10
Even match
Mertens E.7.2/10
Strong advantage
Why
Surface+109 Hard Elo edgeSupports Mertens E.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1894Supports Mertens E.
This eventReached the R32 here last yearSupports Mertens E.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysBoth players
ELO1 907
Hard ELO1 775
Last 106–4
Age24
Height173 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.0M2026 $877K
ELO2 039
Hard ELO1 871
Last 107–3
Age30
Height179 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $20.7M2026 $3.0M

Daria Snigur faces Elise Mertens in the Wuhan round of 128 on hard. Elise Mertens holds the paper edge — ranked #14, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 110-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

10 shared · last 12 months

Snigur D. and Mertens E. faced 10 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Snigur D. went 7–3 (70%) against them, Mertens E. 7–4 (64%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 1 better-results split).

7–370%Snigur D. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents7–464%Mertens E. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
14–10Sets14–10
110–112Games115–106
3–0Tiebreaks2–0
4–0Deciding sets2–0
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Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Snigur D.Mertens E.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–47–3 (ahead)
Season win rate74% (45–16) (ahead)64% (35–20)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO19072039 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO17751871 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 58 vs 51 matches
1st-serve points won63%71% (ahead)
Return points won48% (ahead)44%
Aces / match1.34.3 (ahead)
ClutchLast 58 vs 51 matches
Break points saved57% (ahead)56%

When it starts

Court 2 · After 2 matches · Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Court 2 · ~14:00 local
SurfaceHard · medium
Forecast24°C · Clear
Wind11 km/h
Humidity62%

Court pace medium: balanced pace.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Snigur D.Mertens E.
6 — fresherDays since last match2
1 — fresherMatches · 7 days4
16 — fresherGames · 7 days86
4 — fresherMatches · 14 days5
90 — fresherGames · 14 days114
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Daria Snigur vs Elise Mertens — Wuhan Round of 128", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/mertens-vs-snigur-wuhan-r128?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).