Mili Poljicak vs Francesco Maestrelli | Olbia Round of 32

UMPIRY

OlbiaR32HardTue 13 Oct · 17:00CLOTO ARENA · After 4 matches

Mili PoljicakATP #286 · CRO53%

VSToss-up

Francesco Maestrelli(8)ATP #171 · ITA47%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

53%47%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Poljicak M.5.1/10

Clear underdog

Maestrelli F.6.3/10

Marginal edge

Why

Surface+254 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Maestrelli F.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1538Against the prediction · Maestrelli F.

Recent runLost last 3Informative

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Maestrelli F.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

ELO1 706

Hard ELO1 564

Last 103–7

Age22

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $240K2026 $53K

ELO1 705

Hard ELO1 646

Last 104–6

Age23

Height196 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $921K2026 $338K

Mili Poljicak faces Francesco Maestrelli in the Olbia round of 32 on hard. Francesco Maestrelli is the paper favourite — ranked #171, a roughly 250-point hard Elo advantage — but Mili Poljicak arrives in form, winning 2 of their last 4 on hard to Francesco Maestrelli's 1 of 4.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Mili Poljicak 92 games in 14 days, Francesco Maestrelli 29.
Under pressure: Francesco Maestrelli has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 56 vs Mili Poljicak's 23).
Surface form: Mili Poljicak 2 of 4, Francesco Maestrelli 1 of 4 on hard recently — Mili Poljicak the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Poljicak M.Maestrelli F.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss3–74–6

Season win rate57% (23–17)40% (17–26)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17061705

Hard-court ELO15641646

Serve vs returnLast 25 vs 31 matches

1st-serve points won72%71%

Return points won39%36%

Aces / match5.36.1

ClutchLast 25 vs 31 matches

Break points saved56%64%

When it starts

CLOTO ARENA · After 4 matches · Not before 17:00

1Pieri S. v Rincon D.Starts at 10:00
2Travaglia S. v Durasovic V.Not before 12:30
3Dougaz A. v Dzumhur D.Followed by
4Nardi L. v Holmgren A.Followed by
5This match: Poljicak M. v Maestrelli F.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CLOTO ARENA · 17:00 local

SurfaceHard · medium-slow

Forecast24°C · Clear

Wind8 km/h

Humidity32%

Court pace medium-slow: favours grinders.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Poljicak M.Maestrelli F.

7Days since last match6

1Matches · 7 days1

30Games · 7 days29

4Matches · 14 days1

92Games · 14 days29

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Mili Poljicak vs Francesco Maestrelli — Olbia Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/maestrelli-vs-poljicak-olbia-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).