Tommy Paul vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

UMPIRY

Shanghai MastersR64HardSat 10 Oct · ~19:15Court 3 · After 1 match

Tommy Paul(15)ATP #17 · USA77%

VSClear favourite · Paul T.

Adolfo Daniel VallejoATP #52 · PAR23%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Paul T.

77%23%

Clear edge for Paul T. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Paul T.7.7/10

Dominant favourite

Vallejo D.5.6/10

Slight disadvantage

Why

Surface+362 Hard Elo edgeSupports Paul T.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1948Supports Paul T.

Recent runLost last 2Against the prediction · Vallejo D.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Paul T.

Travel1h west, 10d agoInformative

ELO2 126

Hard ELO1 957

Last 106–4

Age29

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $15.2M2026 $2.2M

ELO1 890

Hard ELO1 670

Last 106–4

Age22

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $923K2026 $668K

Tommy Paul faces Adolfo Daniel Vallejo in the Shanghai Masters round of 64 on hard. Tommy Paul holds the paper edge — ranked #17, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 360-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Tommy Paul 15 games in 14 days, Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 149.
Under pressure: Tommy Paul has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 88 vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo's 53).
Last match: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo dropped just 4 games past Valentin Royer.

Common opponents

6 shared · last 12 months

Paul T. and Vallejo D. faced 6 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Paul T. went 3–3 (50%) against them, Vallejo D. 3–4 (43%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 1 better-results split).

3–350%Paul T. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents3–443%Vallejo D. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

8–7Sets8–9

72–68Games77–85

1–1Tiebreaks2–1

0–2Deciding sets1–2

vs Cobolli F.#7L6-2 3-6 4-6Cincinnati · hardL3-6 2-6Madrid Masters · clay
vs Tien L.#16L3-6 2-6Montreal · hardW6-4 6-3Madrid Masters · clay
vs Darderi L.#21L6-3 3-6 2-6Rome Masters · clayL4-6 7-6(11) 3-6Bastad · clay

Show 3 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Van De Zandschulp B.#41W6-3London · grassW4-6 6-3 7-6(4)Bastad · clay
vs Wong C.#101W6-7(3) 6-1 6-3 6-3US Open · hardL6-7(2) 6-4 3-6Hangzhou · hard
vs Royer V.#105W6-4 7-6(5)Montreal · hardW6-3 6-1Shanghai Masters · hard

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Paul T. leads 2–0

Hard: Paul T. leads 1–0 · Clay: Paul T. leads 1–0

Paul T.August 2026CincinnatiHard3-6 6-3 6-4
Paul T.March 2026HoustonClay3-6 6-4 6-4

Evidence

Paul T.Vallejo D.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–46–4

Season win rate67% (39–19)68% (45–21)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO21261890

Hard-court ELO19571670

Serve vs returnLast 48 vs 57 matches

1st-serve points won74%70%

Return points won38%41%

Aces / match6.93.7

ClutchLast 48 vs 57 matches

Break points saved63%58%

When it starts

Court 3 · After 1 match · Followed by

1Tirante T. v Jodar R.6-4 2-6 3-6
2Tien L. v Svajda Z.1-1
3This match: Paul T. v Vallejo D.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Court 3 · ~19:15 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast23°C · Drizzle

Wind6 km/h

Humidity79%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Paul T.Vallejo D.

10Days since last match2

0Matches · 7 days3

0Games · 7 days50

1Matches · 14 days7

15Games · 14 days149

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Tommy Paul vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — Shanghai Masters Round of 64", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-10/paul-vs-vallejo-shanghai-masters-r64?utm_source=cite (as of 10 October 2026).