Julie Struplova vs Samira De Stefano — Tolentino Open - Tolentino Round of 32

Tolentino Open - Tolentino · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
CZE
Julie Struplova
#225WTA
1403ELO
1386Clay ELO
$27kYTD
$123kCAREER
21 yrs
Last 10
LWLLLLWWWW
—
Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 ·
clay
Court 1 · 4th on
ITA
Samira De Stefano
#193WTA
1485ELO
1369Clay ELO
$35kYTD
$93kCAREER
22 yrs · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWWWLWWWW
Struplova J.
vs
De Stefano S.

Julie Struplova faces Samira De Stefano in the Tolentino Open - Tolentino round of 32 on clay. Julie Struplova is the paper favourite — leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 20-point clay Elo advantage — but Samira De Stefano arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 8 on clay to Julie Struplova's 5.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Struplova J.60%
De Stefano S.40%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Struplova J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Struplova J.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
De Stefano S.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.2+17 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Clay Elo 1368
4.0Overall Elo 1403
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1485
7.8Leads 2–0 on clay
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on clay
4.25 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.87 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

29 vs 29 matches

Statistics

This season
Struplova J.De Stefano S.
1st serve in·Even
69%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
57%
59%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
47%
Service points won·Even
52%
55%
Return points won·Even
51%
49%
Break points saved·Even
50%
52%
Aces / match·Even
0.7
0.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.2
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Struplova J.serving28% hold

wins 41% of points on serve vs De Stefano S.

De Stefano S.serving30% hold

wins 42% of points on serve vs Struplova J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Struplova J.De Stefano S.
Freshness·Dominant
90
51

Struplova J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · De Stefano S.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 106 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

4th on Court 1 · Not before 3:30 PM · 2 matches still to finish ahead

  1. 1Zaar L. v Masarova R.
    7-51-65-7
  2. 2Erjavec V. v Tsygourova K.Live
    3-5
  3. 3Gorgodze E. v Pigossi L.
  4. 4Struplova J. v De Stefano S.This match

Conditions

Weather forecast
22°CMainly clear
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 44%

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-09W35 Santa Margherita di Pula 10R16clayJulie Struplova6-2 6-4

Draw