Quinn Vandecasteele vs Bryce Nakashima

Tiburon · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round of 16

USA

Quinn Vandecasteele

#438ATP

1383ELO

1368Hard ELO

$28kYTD

$95kCAREER

24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWWLWWWLL

—

Sets

Monday, 14 September 2026 · 10:00

hard

KENNEDY-GROSSMAN COURT · 1st on

USAWC

Bryce Nakashima

#872ATP

$25kYTD

$41kCAREER

22 yrs

Last 10

WWWWWWLWLL

Vandecasteele Q.

Nakashima B.

Quinn Vandecasteele faces Bryce Nakashima in the Tiburon qualifying round of 16 on hard. Quinn Vandecasteele holds the paper edge — ranked #438, leading the head-to-head 1–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC

Vandecasteele Q.55%

Nakashima B.45%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Bryce Nakashima handed Kaylan Bigun a second-set bagel in a 7–5 6–0 win.
Head-to-head: Quinn Vandecasteele leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M25 Columbus 1 2023.
Surface form: Quinn Vandecasteele 6 of 10, Bryce Nakashima 7 of 10 on hard recently — Bryce Nakashima the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Vandecasteele Q.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Nakashima B.

4.6

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

7.0Leads 1–0 on hard

H2H

3.0Trails 0–1 on hard

6.97 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

3.92 of last 6 on hard

Fatigue & Travel

5.5Won 59% in USA (100)

Country comfort

5.6Won 60% in USA (80)

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

22 vs 1 matches

Statistics

This season

Vandecasteele Q.Nakashima B.

1st serve in·Slight edge

57%

64%

1st serve points won·Even

71%

69%

2nd serve points won·Even

48%

44%

Service points won·Even

61%

60%

Return points won·Slight edge

40%

30%

Break points saved·Dominant

59%

Aces / match·Dominant

5.4

0.0

Double faults / match·Dominant

3.5

2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 1). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Vandecasteele Q.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Vandecasteele Q.

Serve advantage — Vandecasteele Q.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About

Freshness

Recent load

Vandecasteele Q.Nakashima B.

Freshness·Even

Vandecasteele Q.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Nakashima B.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

1st on KENNEDY-GROSSMAN COURT · Starts At 10:00 · up next on court

1Vandecasteele Q. v Nakashima B.This match
2Seggerman R. v Rybakov A.11:00
3Wolf J. v Emanuel Ambrogi L.12:00
4Sell K. v Mmoh M.16:00

Conditions

Court speed

Mediumbalanced pace

SlowFast

Weather forecast

20°CClear

Wind 10 km/hHumidity 66%

Head to head

1–0

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2023-11-14	M25 Columbus 1	R32	hard	Quinn Vandecasteele	6-2 5-7 6-4

Quinn Vandecasteele vs Bryce Nakashima — Tiburon Qualifying Round of 16