Darja Semenistaja vs Paula Badosa — Sao Paulo Round of 32
ESP2
Semenistaja D.
Darja Semenistaja faces Paula Badosa in the Sao Paulo round of 32 on hard. Paula Badosa holds the paper edge — ranked #70, a roughly 180-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Badosa P. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Paula Badosa rising, Darja Semenistaja cooling.
- Freshness: Darja Semenistaja comes in with 7 days of rest and 48 games in 14d, vs Paula Badosa's 10 and 40.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (48 vs 39). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSemenistaja D.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d) · Badosa P.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
2nd on Quadra Central Maria Esther Bueno · Not before 5:30 PM · 1 match still to finish ahead
- 1Bouzas Maneiro J. v Salkova D.
- 2Semenistaja D. v Badosa P.This match
- 3Lamens S. v Alves C.
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.