Jakub Mensik vs Jurij Rodionov — US Open Round of 64
Mensik J.
Jakub Mensik faces Jurij Rodionov in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Jakub Mensik is the paper favourite — ranked #18, defending last year's round of 64, a roughly 310-point hard Elo advantage — but Jurij Rodionov arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 5 on hard to Jakub Mensik's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Mensik J. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Jakub Mensik has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 84 vs 17).
- Freshness: Jakub Mensik comes in with 2 days of rest and 61 games in 14d, vs Jurij Rodionov's 2 and 103.
- Last match: Jurij Rodionov handed Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard a second-set bagel in a 7–6 6–0 7–6 win.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMensik J.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Rodionov J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 86 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.