Mei Yamaguchi vs Zhuoxuan Bai — W75 Tianjin Round of 16

W75 Tianjin · ITF · Round of 16

JPN

Mei Yamaguchi

#259WTA

1448ELO

1420Hard ELO

27 yrs · 152 cm

Last 10

WLLLLWLWLW

—

Sets

Thursday, 3 September 2026 · 13:00

hard

CHN6

Zhuoxuan Bai

#249WTA

1584ELO

1565Hard ELO

23 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLWLWWLWW

Yamaguchi M.

Bai Z.

Mei Yamaguchi faces Zhuoxuan Bai in the W75 Tianjin round of 16 on hard. Zhuoxuan Bai holds the paper edge — ranked #249, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC

Yamaguchi M.19%

Bai Z.81%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Bai Z. heavily favoured

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Mei Yamaguchi dropped just 3 games past Dayeon Back.
Surface form: Mei Yamaguchi 3 of 8, Zhuoxuan Bai 5 of 8 on hard recently — Zhuoxuan Bai the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

1 common opponents · Yamaguchi M. 1–0 · Bai Z. 0–1 · small sample

Yamaguchi M. better · different surfaces (Hard × Grass) · ⚠ lower-tier event▾

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Yamaguchi M.

4.9

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Bai Z.

6.2

Even matchUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

3.2Hard Elo 1420

Surface ELO

6.8+145 Hard Elo edge

3.3Overall Elo 1448

ELO gap

6.7Overall Elo 1584

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

3.23 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

5.46 of last 10 on hard

0.0Lost last 3

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

32 vs 28 matches

Statistics

This season

Yamaguchi M.Bai Z.

1st serve in·Slight edge

66%

61%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

60%

65%

2nd serve points won·Even

46%

49%

Service points won·Even

55%

59%

Return points won·Slight edge

43%

48%

Break points saved·Even

60%

56%

Aces / match·Even

1.7

2.3

Double faults / match·Even

2.7

2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Yamaguchi M.serving44% hold

wins 47% of points on serve vs Bai Z.

Bai Z.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Yamaguchi M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

29°CClear

Wind 6 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.