Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Alex BarrenaPorto Round of 32

Porto · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#240ATP
1476ELO
1438Clay ELO
20 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWWLLW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 1 September 2026 ·
clay
#233ATP
1375ELO
1347Clay ELO
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWLL
Arnaud Bailly G.
7-6 6-3
Barrena A.
Arnaud Bailly G.
7762
Barrena A.
6330

Gilles Arnaud Bailly defeated Alex Barrena in the Round of 32 of the Porto tournament on clay, winning 7-6, 6-3. Bailly and Barrena were tied in aces and double faults, but Bailly converted a higher percentage of break points and won one more service break. The win advanced Bailly past Barrena in the draw.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-06M25 Grasse 1SFclayAlex Barrena6-4 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
63%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
45%
Service points won·Even
59%
55%
Return points won·Even
38%
39%
Break points saved·Even
58%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.6
2.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Arnaud Bailly G.67%
Barrena A.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Arnaud Bailly G. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+92 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Clay Elo 1347
6.3Overall Elo 1476
ELO gap
3.7Overall Elo 1375
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
2.53 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.45 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Hard → Clay
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
83
86

Arnaud Bailly G.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Barrena A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
22°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 61%

Draw