Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Hugo Dellien

Porto · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

BEL

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

#240ATP

1476ELO

1438Clay ELO

20 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLLWWWWLL

—

Sets

Thursday, 3 September 2026 · 17:30

clay

BOL2

Hugo Dellien

#140ATP

1637ELO

1624Clay ELO

33 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLLLWLWL

Arnaud Bailly G.

Dellien H.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly faces Hugo Dellien in the Porto round of 16 on clay. Hugo Dellien is the paper favourite — ranked #140, a roughly 190-point clay Elo advantage — but Gilles Arnaud Bailly arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 6 on clay to Hugo Dellien's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC

Arnaud Bailly G.40%

Dellien H.60%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Dellien H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Gilles Arnaud Bailly comes in with 1 days of rest and 40 games in 14d, vs Hugo Dellien's 2 and 71.
Last match: Hugo Dellien dropped just 6 games past Frederico Ferreira Silva.
Surface form: Gilles Arnaud Bailly 4 of 6, Hugo Dellien 3 of 6 on clay recently — Gilles Arnaud Bailly the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

2 common opponents · Arnaud Bailly G. 3–0 · Dellien H. 1–1 · small sample

Both won · different surfaces (Hard × Clay)▾

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Arnaud Bailly G.

5.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Dellien H.

6.7

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

2.7Clay Elo 1438

Surface ELO

7.3+186 Clay Elo edge

3.0Overall Elo 1476

ELO gap

7.0Overall Elo 1637

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

3.33 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

6.67 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

16 vs 37 matches

Statistics

This season

Arnaud Bailly G.Dellien H.

1st serve in·Slight edge

63%

70%

1st serve points won·Even

64%

2nd serve points won·Even

50%

51%

Service points won·Even

59%

60%

Return points won·Even

38%

41%

Break points saved·Even

58%

59%

Aces / match·Slight edge

1.6

2.7

Double faults / match·Clear edge

2.3

1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Arnaud Bailly G.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Dellien H.

Dellien H.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Arnaud Bailly G.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Arnaud Bailly G.Dellien H.

Freshness·Slight edge

Arnaud Bailly G.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Dellien H.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 71 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Slowlow bounce, long rallies

SlowFast

Weather forecast

28°CClear

Wind 6 km/hHumidity 55%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Hugo Dellien — Porto Round of 16