Marin Cilic vs Andrey Rublev — US Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
Marin Cilic
CRO
Marin Cilic
#81ATP
1800ELO
1762Hard ELO
$776kYTD
$33MCAREER
37 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLLWWLL
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
Andrey Rublev
RUS23
Andrey Rublev
#24ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWWWWWL
Cilic M.
vs
Rublev A.

Marin Cilic faces Andrey Rublev in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Andrey Rublev holds the paper edge — ranked #24, leading the head-to-head 4–3, defending last year's round of 16.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Cilic M.35%
Rublev A.65%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Rublev A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
7 common opponents · Cilic M. 4–4 · Rublev A. 7–3
Both won · same surface▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Cilic M.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Rublev A.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.9Hard Elo 1762
Surface ELO
6.1+87 Hard Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1800
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1902
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
3.94 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.35 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

23 vs 35 matches

Statistics

This season
Cilic M.Rublev A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
74%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
66%
Return points won·Even
35%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
68%
Aces / match·Clear edge
10.2
7.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.2
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Cilic M.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Rublev A.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Cilic M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Cilic M.Rublev A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
69
83
Break points saved·Even
98
98
Break points won·Dominant
32
65
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
96
Tiebreaks·Even
90
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Cilic M.Rublev A.
Freshness·Even
100
96

Cilic M.: 15 days rest · Rublev A.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

3–4
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-05-23Roland GarrosQFclayMarin Cilic5-7 6-3 6-4 3-6 7-6
2022-01-17Australian OpenR32hardMarin Cilic7-5 7-6 3-6 6-3
2021-08-16Cincinnati MastersR32hardAndrey Rublev5-7 6-3 6-1
2021-03-22Miami MastersR16hardAndrey Rublev6-4 6-4
2019-10-14MoscowSFhardAndrey Rublev7-5 6-4
2019-03-18Miami MastersR64hardAndrey Rublev6-4 6-4
2015-05-17GenevaR16clayMarin Cilic4-6 7-6 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Draw