Roman Safiullin vs Carlos Alcaraz — US Open Round of 128

US Open · ATP · Round of 128
Roman Safiullin
RUS
Roman Safiullin
#98ATP
1750ELO
1704Hard ELO
$199kYTD
$4.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWLWWWW
—
Sets
Sunday, 30 August 2026 ·
hard
Carlos Alcaraz
ESP2
Carlos Alcaraz
#3ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWWLWL
Safiullin R.
vs
Alcaraz C.

Roman Safiullin faces Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Carlos Alcaraz holds the paper edge — ranked #3, defending the title, a roughly 380-point hard Elo advantage. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, Roman Safiullin ahead 1–0 on hard.

Around the match

  • Defending champion returns after wrist injury since April with significant rustiness concerns.

    Alcaraz C.Flashscore.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Safiullin R.5%
Alcaraz C.95%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Alcaraz C. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
4 common opponents · Safiullin R. 2–2 · Alcaraz C. 5–0 · small sample
Alcaraz C. better · different surfaces (Grass × Hard)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Safiullin R.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Alcaraz C.
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.2Hard Elo 1704
Surface ELO
9.8+385 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1750
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 2162
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
4.34 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.38 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

36 vs 25 matches

Statistics

This season
Safiullin R.Alcaraz C.
1st serve in·Even
65%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
57%
Service points won·Even
66%
68%
Return points won·Even
39%
42%
Break points saved·Even
64%
68%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.9
4.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Safiullin R.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Alcaraz C.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Safiullin R.

Serve advantage — Alcaraz C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Safiullin R.Alcaraz C.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
17
97
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
100
Break points won·Dominant
18
98
Deciding sets·Dominant
17
100
Tiebreaks·Dominant
13
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Safiullin R.Alcaraz C.
Freshness·
77
—

Safiullin R.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 79%

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-07-29Paris OlympicsR16clayCarlos Alcaraz6-4 6-2
2023-10-30Paris MastersR32hardRoman Safiullin6-3 6-4

Draw