Roman Safiullin vs Carlos AlcarazParis Masters Round of 32

Paris Masters · ATP · Round of 32
#96ATP
1750ELO
1704Hard ELO
$199kYTD
$4.3MCAREER
28 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 30 October 2023
hard
#3ATP
2162ELO
2088Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$65MCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
Safiullin R.
6-3 6-4
Alcaraz C.
Safiullin R.
662
Alcaraz C.
340

Roman Safiullin defeated Carlos Alcaraz 6-3 6-4 in the Paris Masters round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Carlos Alcaraz came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's quarter-final. Roman Safiullin claimed a first win over Carlos Alcaraz in two meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 1–1.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-07-29Paris OlympicsR16clayCarlos Alcaraz6-4 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Safiullin R.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Alcaraz C.

Alcaraz C.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Safiullin R.

Serve advantage — Alcaraz C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Safiullin R.Alcaraz C.
Serve
74
Return
95

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
74%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
52%
57%
Service points won·Even
65%
68%
Return points won·Even
38%
42%
Break points saved·Even
62%
66%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.3
5.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.1
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (180 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
68
98
Break points saved·Even
96
100
Break points won·Dominant
44
99
Deciding sets·Clear edge
76
100
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
78
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
7.8
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1704
Surface ELO
10.0+385 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1750
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 2162
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.5
Surface form
6.9
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.4
Minutes 14d
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Country comfort
6.3
Context
5.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
78

Safiullin R.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
12°CDrizzle
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 92%