Alexis Galarneau vs Dino PrizmicQuebec City Round of 32

Quebec City · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#185ATP
1593ELO
1548Hard ELO
$177kYTD
$837kCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWLWWWLW
Sets
Thursday, 20 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT BANQUE NATIONALE · 4th on
#101ATP
1841ELO
1733Hard ELO
$530kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLWLLWLW
Galarneau A.
vs
Prizmic D.

Alexis Galarneau faces Dino Prizmic in the Quebec City round of 32 on hard. Dino Prizmic holds the paper edge — ranked #101, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 180-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Galarneau A.20%
Prizmic D.80%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Prizmic D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
2 common opponents · Galarneau A. 1–1 · Prizmic D. 2–0 · small sample
Prizmic D. better · different surfaces (Hard × Clay)
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.7Hard Elo 1548
Surface ELO
7.3+185 Hard Elo edge
1.9Overall Elo 1593
ELO gap
8.1Overall Elo 1841
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
H2H
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
4.65 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

39 vs 29 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
57%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
67%
Return points won·Even
39%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
66%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.4
4.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.6
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Galarneau A.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Prizmic D.

Prizmic D.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Galarneau A.

Serve advantage — Prizmic D.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
28
71
Break points saved·Clear edge
79
92
Break points won·Dominant
16
64
Deciding sets·Dominant
22
92
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
61
37

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
100
91

Galarneau A.: 16 days rest · Prizmic D.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
19°CMainly clear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 90%

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-18US OpenQ128hardDino Prizmic7-6(7) 6-1

Draw