Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev — Cincinnati Round of 32

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 32
Brandon Nakashima
USA27
Brandon Nakashima
#22ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 18 August 2026 ·
hard
GRANDSTAND · 2nd on
Daniil Medvedev
RUS4
Daniil Medvedev
#7ATP
1977ELO
1962Hard ELO
$2.5MYTD
$52MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWLWWLW
Nakashima B.
6-7 7-6 6-1
Medvedev D.
Nakashima B.
637762
Medvedev D.
776411

Brandon Nakashima defeated Daniil Medvedev in the Round of 32 of the Cincinnati hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-7, 7-6, 6-1 in favor of Nakashima. Key stats included 8 aces and 1 double fault for Nakashima, compared to 11 aces and 10 double faults for Medvedev.

Around the match

  • “As far as my preparation goes for New York, this is great. Being able to participate at least in one tournament — a strong tournament — play one or more matches, hopefully more than one, get myself going.”

    Medvedev D.The New York Times ↗

  • “The level that I was playing, especially later stages of the tournament — quarters, semis — I feel that was some of the best tennis that I've played in my career.”

    Nakashima B.Cincinnati Open ↗

  • “I feel like I have a lot of confidence right now. I'm just trying to make sure my body is staying healthy and keep riding the wave.”

    Nakashima B.Cincinnati Open ↗

  • “I'm happy to have avoided a third set, it's very hot. From the start of the match, when the second set arrives, everyone is out of breath, sweating, the conditions are tough.”

    Medvedev D.Tennis365 ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

0–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-04BrisbaneFhardDaniil Medvedev6-2 7-6
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR16clayDaniil Medvedev3-6 6-1 6-4
2023-03-06Indian Wells MastersR64hardDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-3
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Nakashima B.Medvedev D.
1st serve in·Even
68%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
78%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
49%
Service points won·Even
69%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
10.7
7.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
0.8
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 38). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Nakashima B.Medvedev D.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
36
96
Break points saved·Even
96
99
Break points won·Dominant
3
98
Deciding sets·Dominant
37
98
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
81
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Nakashima B.38%
Medvedev D.62%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Medvedev D. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Nakashima B.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Medvedev D.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.8Hard Elo 1788
Surface ELO
7.2+175 Hard Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1839
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1977
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
7.98 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.87 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Nakashima B.Medvedev D.
Freshness·Clear edge
52
66

Nakashima B.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 98 games (7d) · Medvedev D.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 50%

Draw