Daniil Medvedev vs Brandon NakashimaBrisbane Final

Brisbane · ATP · Final
#9ATP
1977ELO
1962Hard ELO
$2.5MYTD
$52MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 4 January 2026
hard
#31ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Medvedev D.
6-2 7-6
Nakashima B.
Medvedev D.
6772
Nakashima B.
2610

Daniil Medvedev defeated Brandon Nakashima 6-2 7-6 in the Brisbane final on hard. The result followed the form book — Daniil Medvedev came in ranked #9, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Daniil Medvedev extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR16clayDaniil Medvedev3-6 6-1 6-4
2023-03-06Indian Wells MastersR64hardDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Medvedev D.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Medvedev D.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Medvedev D.Nakashima B.
47
Serve
61
94
Return
23

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
69%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
77%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
53%
Service points won·Even
66%
69%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.3
9.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.6
0.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
96
56
Break points saved·Even
100
99
Break points won·Dominant
99
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
99
64
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 69 days (−1.2)
3.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
7.5+175 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.5Hard Elo 1788
7.4Overall Elo 1977
ELO gap
2.6Overall Elo 1839
10.0
H2H
0.0
8.0
Surface form
3.4
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
6.5
Country comfort
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
85
86

Medvedev D.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Nakashima B.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 56%