Elina Svitolina vs Iga Swiatek — Toronto Semi-final
UKR9
POL7
Svitolina E.
Elina Svitolina faces Iga Swiatek in the Toronto semi-final on hard. Iga Swiatek holds the paper edge — ranked #8, leading the head-to-head 4–3, a roughly 20-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Around the match
“I've been feeling good on the court. This is giving me confidence. I'm trying to do my best every day, keep my routines, be really focused.”
Swiatek I.WTA Tennis ↗“I'm for sure better focused. I feel the ball well on my racket. It's a nice tournament where there's not much fuss around, you can really focus on your job.”
Swiatek I.WTA Tennis ↗
Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Elina Svitolina comes in with 0 days of rest and 134 games in 14d, vs Iga Swiatek's 1 and 69.
- Head-to-head: Iga Swiatek leads the head-to-head 4–3, 1–2 on hard. Last met at Rome 2026.
- Last match: Elina Svitolina dropped the opening set before beating Ekaterina Alexandrova 3–6 6–0 6–3.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSvitolina E.: played today · 4 matches, 92 games (7d) · Swiatek I.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 69 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
3–4| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Rome | SF | clay | Elina Svitolina | 4-6 6-2 2-6 |
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells | QF | hard | Elina Svitolina | 6-2 4-6 6-4 |
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | QF | clay | Iga Swiatek | 6-1 7-5 |
| 2025-03-18 | Miami | R16 | hard | Iga Swiatek | 7-6 6-3 |
| 2024-02-19 | Dubai | R16 | hard | Iga Swiatek | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2023-07-03 | Wimbledon | QF | grass | Elina Svitolina | 7-5 6-7 6-2 |
| 2021-05-10 | Rome | QF | clay | Iga Swiatek | 6-2 7-5 |