Denis Shapovalov vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez — Los Cabos Round of 16
CAN8
Shapovalov D.
Denis Shapovalov faces Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez in the Los Cabos round of 16 on hard. Denis Shapovalov holds the paper edge — ranked #68, a roughly 290-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Shapovalov D. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Denis Shapovalov has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 71 vs 13).
- Last match: Denis Shapovalov dropped the opening set before beating Rinky Hijikata 2–6 6–3 6–2.
- Fatigue load: Denis Shapovalov carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadPacheco Mendez R.: played today · 1 match, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.