Mai Hontama vs Himeno Sakatsume — Vancouver Quarter-final

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
Mai Hontama
JPN
Mai Hontama
#189WTA
1480ELO
1442Hard ELO
26 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWLWLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 2 · 2nd on
JPN5
Himeno Sakatsume
#138WTA
1611ELO
1599Hard ELO
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLLWWLLL
Hontama M.
vs
Sakatsume H.

Mai Hontama faces Himeno Sakatsume in the Vancouver quarter-final on hard. Himeno Sakatsume holds the paper edge — ranked #138, leading the head-to-head 2–1, a roughly 160-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC
Hontama M.36%
Sakatsume H.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Sakatsume H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
3 common opponents · Hontama M. 1–2 · Sakatsume H. 3–1 · small sample
Sakatsume H. better · same surface▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Hontama M.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Sakatsume H.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.0Hard Elo 1442
Surface ELO
7.0+157 Hard Elo edge
3.4Overall Elo 1480
ELO gap
6.6Overall Elo 1611
1.8Trails 0–3 on hard
H2H
8.2Leads 3–0 on hard
7.37 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.85 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

41 vs 39 matches

Statistics

This season
Hontama M.Sakatsume H.
1st serve in·Even
68%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
59%
63%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
43%
48%
Service points won·Even
54%
58%
Return points won·Even
47%
43%
Break points saved·Even
52%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.8
2.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.6
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 39). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Hontama M.serving52% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Sakatsume H.

Sakatsume H.serving52% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Hontama M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Hontama M.Sakatsume H.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
29
62
Break points saved·Dominant
27
64
Break points won·Even
96
97
Deciding sets·Dominant
28
62
Tiebreaks·
68
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Hontama M.Sakatsume H.
Freshness·Even
62
65

Hontama M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 70 games (7d) · Sakatsume H.: played today · 2 matches, 50 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 64%

Head to head

1–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-14Australian OpenQ64hardHimeno Sakatsume6-4 6-2
2023-09-05W100 Tokyo 1R32hardHimeno Sakatsume2-6 7-6(3) 2-0
2020-03-04W25 YokohamaR16hardMai Hontama7-5 3-6 6-1

Draw